FarmEcon LLC Monthly Turkey Supply-Use Tracker
The NTF Turkey Demand Enhancement Team has requested data on turkey consumption trends. USDA data is sufficient to calculate estimates of monthly total domestic and export use.
Based on USDA data, monthly supply and use trends for the U.S. turkey industry are shown below. This information will be updated on about the first of the month after the last data piece, export tonnage, is published by USDA.
These charts show annualized data for domestic use, total domestic and export use, and the major components that go into the use statistics. All data are taken from the USDA sources noted. This information is supplied gratis to the turkey industry as a sincere thank you for all the incredible support given to FarmEcon LLC since 2003.
Overview - Domestic and total monthly turkey use
Detailed components of domestic and total monthly turkey use
Another way of looking at stocks is how much is in frozen inventory relative to total monthly use. The lower the value, the tighter are the stocks relative to use. The statistic is calculated as:
Monthly total frozen stocks
÷ Monthly turkey total use
x Number of days in the month.
Example - Stocks are 300 million pounds, total use is 500 million pounds, and there are 30 days in the month.
300 ÷ 500 X 30 = 18 days of use in inventory.
The number represents the buffer stock held in frozen stocks at locations surveyed by USDA. It shows how many days it would take to use up those stocks at the current use rate.
There is, naturally, significant seasonality to the statistic. During the year millions of pounds of frozen whole bird stocks are put back for the holiday season, then sold mainly in October-November. The typical peak stocks are in June or July at about 35 to 40 days. After that, frozen birds start to move to retail freezer space, and disappear from the USDA Cold Storage Report. The seasonal low is always November, and generally around 10 days.
In addition to total frozen stocks, USDA also publishes monthly estimates of several categories of turkey cuts and whole birds. These data are shown in the graph below.
USDA data on 2012 to 2017 exports by FAS product category of turkey cuts and whole birds are shown in the graph below. For 2016 both the entire year and a January through September comparison with 2017 are shown.